The El Niño climate event and its impact on Colombia’s agricultural trade balance, 2009–2024
Introduction: This article is derived from the research project entitled “Factors in the Measurement of the Fair Value of Biological Assets in Companies Listed on the Colombian Stock Exchange”, developed by the University of La Salle and the Colombian Association of Faculties of Public Accounting (ASFACOP).
Problem: Colombia relies heavily on agricultural production for its foreign trade. Consequently, the El Niño phenomenon has significant implications for the country’s trade balance, affecting crop yields, increasing production costs, and generating the need to import agricultural products and energy, particularly from alternative sources, to meet domestic demand.
Objective: To quantify the economic effects of the El Niño phenomenon in Colombia during the study period, analyzing its implications for the trade deficit and the structure of exports and imports within the agricultural sector.
Results: The findings indicate that during the periods of greatest intensity of the El Niño phenomenon (2015–2016 and 2023–2024), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased significantly, agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) experienced a decline, particularly in the fishing subsector, and food imports increased due to reduced domestic production. Additionally, fluctuations in reservoir levels affected the performance of the energy sector, leading to higher electricity prices.
Conclusions: During the most severe El Niño episodes, exports of meat products and the productivity of both temporary and permanent crops, such as sugarcane, were adversely affected. Exports of commodities such as cocoa and sugar declined, while imports in the agricultural and energy sectors, particularly fossil fuels, increased considerably.
Originality: The study provides a more accurate assessment of the economic consequences of the El Niño phenomenon, contributing to the design of public policies aimed at improving responses to extreme climate events.
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